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Apr 23, 2012

Climate models; “Of drought and flooding rain.”

Cartoon: By Spooner.

It is beginning to look like the climate frantics have some sort of communication problem. Their biggest one has been for a while communicating with a public that has lost faith in the numerous disaster scenarios that have been presented over the years, none of which has happened.

There were after all, supposed to be a hundred billion bazillion climate refugees headed our way by a few years ago. Most refugees we see at the moment appear to be fleeing wars or oppressive governments; the very organizations the eco lobby touts as the climate change cure.

Some skeptics tend to have doubts in the Australian government’s capability in this regard. They point out that it would require a great deal of optimism to expect an organization that was incapable of putting pink bats in houses without killing people to be capable of making the weather nice.

There seems though, some contradictory ideas among the leadership. First we will look at the position taken by former Australian of the year and official government climate guru, Professor Tim Aint Gonna Rain No More No More Flannery:
Over the past 50 years southern Australia has lost about 20 per cent of its rainfall, and one cause is almost certainly global warming. Similar losses have been experienced in eastern Australia, and although the science is less certain it is probable that global warming is behind these losses too. But by far the most dangerous trend is the decline in the flow of Australian rivers: it has fallen by around 70 per cent in recent decades, so dams no longer fill even when it does rain. Growing evidence suggests that hotter soils, caused directly by global warming, have increased evaporation and transpiration and that the change is permanent. I believe the first thing Australians need to do is to stop worrying about "the drought" - which is transient - and start talking about the new climate.
This seems to have been missed by Ruben Meerman of the ABC’s science program ‘Catalyst’ the other night while discussing flood sediment in Moreton Bay and it’s effect on sea grass:
Dr James Udy: 
Longer term we have to be very mindful of what we’re doing on the land that comes swishing out into Moreton Bay and will affect the ecosystem for now and in the future.

Ruben Meerman: 
This time Moreton Bay faired surprisingly well, but with climate change we expect bigger floods more often.

And while this ecosystem has proved more resilient than expected, nobody knows how much more it can take. The one thing that’s certain it’s too beautiful to risk finding out.
It seems that the sea grass which was expected by ‘reputable’ scientists to be wiped out by flood sediment was faring way better than expected, especially in the worst affected Western sector which was explained away as:
I think one way to look at it is if you think about would you expect an individual, a human that is in very good health to be better able to ward off disease, and you probably think well yes you would. But in fact with the ecosystem it’s the, part of ecosystem here on the western side that’s been having little bits of suffering year in year out was better able to cope this time when the major flood came.
There is another possibility, which was not canvassed. Possibly the reason why the most flood affected grass was doing better than that in the East is that the nutrients from the silt actually nourish sea grass. Unfortunately such an idea does not lead to the conclusion that farming in river valleys should be stopped.

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