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Dec 13, 2010

Prediction; Gary Johnson will run.

Given the current revolt against big government, taxes, and wasteful spending going on in the States, this is the ideal time to be looking for someone outside the usual, ‘more of the same’ Presidential hopefuls who start appearing at political rallies around now. On the GOP side the old names such as the Huckster, Romney, Pawlenty and so on are being dragged out for another spin, with the addition of Palin, and Trump neither of whom will stand.

Gary Johnson, the former Governor of New Mexico would be the ideal candidate for these times and has been testing the waters for a while. Gary has a substantial record of fiscal responsibility from his Governorship, which will appeal strongly to the mood of the electorate at present as well as a solid libertarian attitude, which can be seen here in his speech to CPAC this year:

Part two and part three, (in which he deals with the Marijuana issue,) are worth watching if you have the time.

He has been touring the country testing the sentiment and while his figures are in single digits at the moment, as a low profile candidate they show some reason for optimism. There is every reason to believe that Ron Paul will throw his weight behind him, and he is a cinch for the support of the Tea Party with its strong libertarian element.

He is to be a major speaker at the Republican Liberty Caucus National Convention in February, and I tip that he will announce then.

The major difficulty I see him having is with the religious social conservative element over the marijuana issue. Huckabee, who is already claiming he can beat Obama, (along with the drovers dog,) will exploit this area to the best of his ability. There is no avoiding this issue as he is out there over a long period in support of legalization. This has to come to a head and Johnson will win a debate on the issue as Huck can hardly present much of a case for the current drug war being a resounding success.

He will have to ensure that this issue does not dominate the campaign. Press coverage tends to focus on it, as it is something of a novelty for them to have someone who speaks his mind. He has to ensure that the other issues have to come to the fore, or he will be consigned to a novelty issue.

Gary has what it takes to make a real difference, and the track record to prove it from his time as NM Governor. There is a good argument that with his libertarian tendencies he will have a considerable appeal to the saner Democrat voters who are fiscally literate but are turned off the social conservatism of the Republicans, and therefore may be able to turn blue states red.

With a Republican majority in Congress, California and its mates are unlikely to get bailed out of their financial problems in this term and are likely to be bankrupt and angry by 2012. There will be major changes in attitude over the next two years in these states, which can be exploited successfully if the GOP has the sense to be daring enough.

With the abject failure of conservative candidates in California this time, it might be a good idea to try more libertarian orientated people to carry the banner next time.

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