Labor on a flogging to nothing today.

Cartoon: by Pickering.  

A deep feeling of satisfaction today stepping into the polling booth in the certain knowledge that this time Labor is a goner in Queensland. Polling indicates that the LNP is leading on a two party preferred basis of 61% - 39% which should make the tally room look like a slaughter house.

The current state of the parliament is 51 Labor, 31 LNP, and 7 independents of whom 3 are defectors to Katter’s One Australian Party.

The last week of Labor adds concentrated on pleading to voters to let them keep some members.

 Antony Green who is the acknowledged electoral guru in Australia has an electoral calculator up on his site, which indicates that with the current swing Labor might hold 19 seats out of the 89 available, but does not take the independent and KAP seats into account.

 These figures are only a guide as it assumes that the swing will be uniform. In any election there are always the odd MPs who buck the trend and manage to hold on, as well as others who manage to get themselves tossed out against the trend.

 There are though, some predictions of a wipeout with Labor only holding 11 or 12 seats. To give some indication of the upheaval going on at present, the member for Nicklin is the popular independent Peter Wellington, who would require a swing of 17% against him to lose the seat is reporting that the result will be close. The main anger is directed at Labor, not the independents, so we are in uncharted territory.

 Bob’s Party may gain a couple of seats but with only 9% in the polls they will have to be very strong somewhere. There is speculation that they may win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but are expected to lose Beaudesert. Dalrymple is held by former LNP MP Shane Knuth who defected to Bob when it was predicted the seat might go to KAP.

 His brother Jeff is standing in Hinchinbrook. Jeff is a Druery like serial candidate who has joined of a number of parties over the years in order to get himself elected. He won a seat for One Nation for a term, then joined the City-Country Alliance and lost, then stood as an independent and lost, and is now standing for Bob.

 We look forward to tonight.

Update: I erroneously stated that Jeff Knuth was standing in Burdekin; he is standing in Hinchinbrook.