Qld Labor loss; not a landslide; an avalanche.

Cartoon by Sean Leahy.

Labor has been thrashed today in the most massive electoral reversal in Australian political history. The party is blaming it on the fact that it has been in office for 20 of the last 22 years and the public just wanted a change. This indicates that they are in denial.

 Immediately after the 2009 election Bligh announced a massive sale of state assets, which was not foreshadowed during the campaign. When called out over it during this campaign, she claimed that she had not realised that the state was in such a dire financial position. Prior to assuming the Premiers job she had been Deputy Premier and Treasurer, so she either lied or is an idiot.

 The entire campaign from Labor was a constant diatribe of negative advertisements on Opposition Leader Campbell Newman and his family. This was made to look ridiculous when she was forced to admit that she had no evidence, just “unanswered questions.” The Crime and Misconduct Commission announced a couple of days later that he had no case to answer.

 The last week of the campaign was filled with more allegations against Newman and pleas to the voters not to give him too big a majority.

 The current results are: LNP 75 seats, ALP 6, KAP 2, Independent 2, Doubtful 4. At present the projections are: LNP 78 seats, (up 47) ALP 7, (down 44) KAP 2, (won 1 lost 1) Independent 2 (down 3).

 It looks like most of the ALP vote losses in the north went to KAP, with the rest going mainly to LNP. There is a chance that in Thuringowa where Labor preferenced KAP to try to block the LNP that it could go that way but at this stage projections have it in the LNP gains.

 Preferences are optional here and a significant number of voters only vote for their first choice without allocating preferences. Wayne Goss brought this in when the Libs and Nationals were at each others throats but it has come back to bite them in the arse this time as there are quite a few seats where the Greens could have got them over the line including Mt Coot-tha where the treasurer, Andrew Fraser lost his seat.

 The LNP strategy of selecting Newman as Opposition Leader from outside parliament has paid off big-time. Newman was Lord Mayor of Brisbane and a popular figure in the state and it took considerable courage to resign and operate in the role without actually being able to attend the house. This is entirely unprecedented here. The only incident that comes close was the appointment of Senator Gorton as PM after the death of Harold Holt. Gorton had to stand in a by-election and win before he could take up the position.

 There was a strong feeling that this tactic could unravel badly, but the LNP MPs remained loyal through the year it took and won the day. It will be interesting over the next few days to see if all of the pundits who ridiculed this action will eat their words. Don’t hold your breath, folks.