The brighter side of NZ earthquakes.

An article in the ABCs, The Drum today seems to indicate that those bloody kiwis have all the luck. You see, while we Aussies struggle with the effects of the economic downturn and European meltdown, New Zealand, lucky bastards have had a massive earthquake which has devastated Christchurch and set the stage for a beautiful economic revival.

Reading through it gives the impression that its almost too good to be true, I mean, why cant we have one too. It might mitigate the effects of the Gillard government. Among the goodies on offer are; it will be a giant stimulus package to New Zealand's struggling construction industry, positive for growth next year, has come at the right time for the construction industry, and so on. It'll create tens of thousands of jobs, most of which will have to be sourced from outside of Christchurch. There will be a flood of immigration into the city.

Of course the city's retailers should enjoy a boom from residents replacing damaged electronics, furniture, crockery, and all the other items destroyed in the quake. It will cause a big lift to household spending, and should have some knock-on effects throughout the economy an economist says.

The author is careful to blame the evils of capitalism for this:

You see, in capitalism, someone's misfortune often registers as someone else's gain. A company's surging profit is usually reported as a positive, although it often comes at the expense of redundant employees, cut wages, or customer price gouging.

Likewise, traffic accidents in some ways add to national income - without them, there would be no panel beating industry for starters - yet they cause immense human heartache.

Perhaps the greatest historical example of tragic economic stimulus is the Second World War, which many economic historians credit far more than Roosevelt's New Deal for lifting the US out of the Great Depression.

Most rational economists are of the opinion that the New Deal in fact prolonged the Great Depression.

The reason that the left seems to constantly argue this case is that they simply have no idea what a free enterprise economy consists of. Most are under the rather quaint delusion that what we have now is capitalism.

This is not the case. Practically every aspect of industry and the economy is under some sort of regulation and is not free. There are few if any areas where our acts of trading are not subject to regulations by those in power, or remaining from their predecessors.

In a free economy there is no way an earthquake causing two billion in damage could ever be described as anything other than a disaster. The resources needed to repair and rebuild would seriously impact on other areas, from which those resources would have to be diverted. This is also the case in the current economy, but tends to be disguised. The reason for this is that while all that activity is going on it is obvious to the viewer.

What is not seen is all of the activity that is not happening elsewhere because of the diversion of those resources into rectifying the damage. The left is constantly blindsided by their belief in the command economy, which has not the vibrancy of freedom but plods along at the pace set by bureaucracy and central planning. Grand schemes of government are their stock in trade for the simple reason that it can be seen and pointed out, while what is not happening as result is invisible.

This is why the left loves a good disaster.

The LDP into the future.

Cartoon: by Zeg.

That future is us. We just have to take it.

If one thing can be deduced from the election it is that while the voters were in a mood for change, they were not in any way satisfied with the options that were there to change to. The enlarged vote for the Greens should not be interpreted as a general desire within the population for a move to the hard left, which the Greens represent, but disillusionment with both major parties. The Greens were the only party other than the big two who gained any publicity, so that in the eyes of the voters they were the only known quantity that was not Labor or Liberal.

We had mixed results, from a top of 5.5% in Gippsland where our candidate Ben Buckley was a well-known and popular local councilor, to lower ones in some of the more hotly contested seats. The important thing is that each and every one of them stepped forward and gave it his or her best. Sure there is disappointment, there is more down the track.

The Senate was good for us in the Eastern States; especially in NSW where Glen Druery appears to have made it to the last two left standing for the sixth seat, and Queensland. SA and WA didn’t do too badly for states where we have yet to establish much of a presence. We improved in every contest where we have been before.

We have a lot of scope in Queensland, given the report in the Courier that Labor has lost around 13% since the last state election but the LNP has only managed to pick up a bit over 2% of it. I tend to watch the LNP with a sense of disappointed bemusement in that they seem to have no idea of the way forward, they don't look like a party ready to govern even in comparison with Labor, which is governing very badly. Their only chance of winning is for Labor to stay really bad, and even then I doubt they can have much confidence of getting across the line and if they do, they will be another one term government.

The same applies federally; as with the absolute shambles that Labor is and was, the Liberals were not really able to capitalize on it to the point of winning. They had every chance but failed to really define themselves as a real alternative to what was there already. When Abbott blocked the ETS he made the Liberals look credible, they were a real alternative. Since that time they have lost the plot and ended up going to the election as Labor lite, or not Labor.

We are rapidly moving toward the situation where the government is free to do anything it pleases, while the citizens may act only by permission. The Liberals do not offer an alternative to this because they are no longer a liberal party, but a conservative one and now represent just another face of big government and the nanny state.

We have a population looking for an alternative, and we are the only one. We in the LDP are the only party that intends to halt this decline into authoritarianism and reverse it. We are the only party that understands that the real solution is to reduce the size, scope and cost of government before we reach the situation where every dollar in the country finds its way into the hands of the state to be redistributed at great cost through a massive bureaucracy back to us in the manner that the current social engineers deem to be appropriate.

Let it not be:

“[Tonight]. We are a nation becalmed. We have lost the brisk pace of diversity and the genius of individual creativity. We are plodding along at a pace set by centralized planning, red tape, rules without responsibility, and regimentation without recourse.” – Barry Goldwater. 1964

Well its Labor.

Yesterday I made the prediction, a fairly easy one actually, that Gillard would get across the line with the aid of the independents. Today it has come to pass despite some doubts earlier. I had the feeling that Bob Katter was a 50/50 bet, and he gave his support to the Liberals earlier than his two colleges, which clearly indicated there was a split and the other two would go to Labor.

As result we have a government clinging to power by effectively one seat, and a bought and paid for one at that. The Australian taxpayer will be forking out ten billion dollars in special deals for Julia’s pyrrhic victory, and a cabinet role for Oakeshott, which he seemed to be keeping to himself until a reporter asked the question. This was followed by a rather embarrassed admission.

I am not sure what it is about Oakeshott, but I am of the considered opinion that there is something not quite right about him. Katter and Windsor seemed to react in a manner that was consistent with the gravity of the situation, and the awareness of the consequences of the decision they were being called on to make. Oakeshott in contrast seemed to be rather enjoying the situation as if there was no responsibility involved.

Then there was the rather bizarre 15 – 20 minute speech to announce his decision to go with Labor. He acted as if he were the compare on Australian Idol trying to draw out the suspense on who goes out this week. I am not a shrink, but there is something really weird about this guy. It could just be a craving for attention but it’s a worry.

Now it’s a matter of seeing how this one plays out. We have a faction ridden Labor Party with 72 seats, governing with the help of a Green, an independent green, and two faux conservatives. This will give them a theoretical 76 seats, against Abbotts 73 seats plus Bob Katter. One death, disgrace or resignation can change the government, while in the Senate the Greens can hold the whole lot to ransom after next July.

One of the persistent themes of the last week or so has been the recurring theme of the ‘will of the people, or what the people want. Windsor in his statement made the point that he the reason he was supporting Labor was that if the Liberals were to be in government, they would call an early election, as they would win it and he wanted a three year term. Go figure.

Tomorrow we may have an election result.

Cartoon: by Zeg.

After a long wait it now seems likely that the independents will commit themselves to one party or another, or maybe both tomorrow. They are not as united as was originally assumed. My guess is that at this stage two will go with Labor, while Katter is even money both ways.

There is a considerable degree of confusion regarding a couple of polls that have come out in the last week which seem to indicate that the majority of Australians would prefer them to back Labor despite the Liberals being the leaders in the two party preferred vote. There is also speculation on what this all means:

According to the Newspoll in The Weekend Australian (4-5/9), 39% of voters want the independents to support the Coalition, and 47% Labor. 14% are uncommitted, 6% being Coalition supporters and 5% Labor. The poll also says both Coalition and Labor supporters are almost unanimous in believing the independents should support their parties. ….

According to the TWS poll in the Sydney Morning Herald 31% of voters want the independents to support the Coalition and 37% Labor. 26% want a new election. But if there were another election the Coalition would lead on the two party preferred vote, 50.4% to 49.6%.

My read is there is probably a large group of Liberals who realize that Katter and Co have no real alignment with liberalism and would in fact be a disaster waiting to happen. While I think that Abbott could accommodate them and would if he got the chance, the wish list these people have presented is more consistent with Labor.

Windsor and Oakeshott favor a mining resource rent tax, and Emissions trading scheme, or carbon tax. While Katter opposes these, he would have to rely on Labor to get his ideas of restricted market share for our major supermarket chains, Coles and Woolworths, mandated 22% ethanol content in all fuel, centralized marketing boards, and devaluing the Dollar.

Katter has a serious problem grasping the concept of free markets and disagrees with them. He favors Labors white elephant National Broadband Network, and rails against telecommunications being in the private sector. He completely fails to grasp that the dominance of the two supermarkets is caused by their policy of providing better service at competitive prices to customers.

Other than by providing a service that is superior to that of any competitors, the only way a monopoly can form is to be favored by way of regulations. If there is anything unfair about the dominance of these two, he should seek out any regulation, which gives them an unfair advantage, and abolish it.

He has some policies that seem reasonably sane, such as return of recreational freedoms to traditional pursuits like fishing, camping and outdoor sports and activities, abolish the Wild Rivers legislation, which disadvantages the Aboriginal people in the north, and secure property rights, etc.

I am inclined to think Windsor and Oakeshott are probably at home with Labor, Katter should probably stay on the cross benches. The Liberal Party would have to be pretty desperate to govern to accept these idiots into their team, and some Liberals understand this. This is the reason for the difference between the electoral result and the preference as to where people would prefer the independents to go.

The best result would be for Labor to form a government with the aid of these three, enact some of its draconian policies, after which they and the independents would be voted out forever. I seriously doubt that we will ever see an end to the left without the population being subjected to the full bastardry that Labor and the Greens intend to inflict on us.

The Rev. Fred Nile and what the meaning of is, is.

The big news of the day was that NSW Ports and waterways minister Paul McLeay has resigned after admitting to using his parliamentary computer to visit gambling and adult websites. He says although the websites were not illegal, it was a mistake to visit them and he accepts he acted inappropriately.

Actually it’s not all that big, NSW Labor politicians seem to be resigning in disgrace so regularly they are starting to resemble lemmings charging toward the abyss. There are indications that other MPs are likely to be called to account on this one.

Here’s where it gets interesting though. New South Wales Christian Democrat MP, the Rev. Fred Nile has made a statement that neither, he or his staff have been "perving" at internet pornography videos on their work computers, but they have been researching the issue. This sounds like those Japanese whalers down in the Southern Ocean researching whale populations.

There are reports the audit also found Fred Nile's computer had been used to access internet porn.

Mr Nile says, for research purposes, a senior researcher viewed the websites of organisations like the Australian Sex Party and the Eros Foundation, and then followed links from the sites.

The Sex Party have made a press release, making their position clear:

The Rev Fred Nile should not feel guilty about accessing pornography per se but should resign over his appalling response to the current situation, according to the Australian Sex Party. His excuse was to blame and defame the Australian Sex Party and suggest that he was looking for ‘criminal links’ off the Sex Party website.

Sex Party President, Fiona Patten, said that Rev Nile should get over his guilt and shame and explain to the public exactly what sort of ‘porn’ sites he and/or his staff were surfing. “Most adult sites that originate in the US or Europe contain large amounts of Refused Classification (RC) material because they do not meet the tight criteria of Australian X rated guidelines”, she said. “Those conducting the audit should not be using the word ‘porn’ to refer to any of the 200,000 sites that the Rev Nile’s office is reported to have accessed. They should be telling us if they were R rated, X rated or RC. This gives us a truer picture of type of material that he was looking at.”

Ms Patten said that Rev Nile had a right to look at R and X rated porn in his office if he wanted to and that his constituents would be the final arbiters of his actions. “However if he was looking at ‘religious BDSM*’ for example, which is a new genre involving flagellation and sexual bondage scenes, most of which would fall into the RC classification, then that would be a bridge too far”, she said.

She called on Rev Nile to make public all the links to crime and the Sex Party that he found in his ‘research’. “The NSW tax payer has funded this research so let’s all have a look at it”, she said. “I’d like to publicly debate him about the links between religious organizations and child sex abuse vs. the links to sex shops illegally selling classified X rated films in NSW”.

Some good clips from the campaign.

My US mates keep asking me about the Sex Party. They tend to be a little shy and inhibited over there, and haven’t got a real fun party. This one is a ripper from them, themed on the Howard policy, Workchoices.

The next two are faux ads developed by the Chaser comedy team. The first is one aimed at the Greens which many of us tend to think is actually pretty accurate.

Then this one which is just as good, slapping the Liberals.


And the there is Angry Kevin, a send up of the Hungry Jacks "Angry Angus," ad.

Mating dance of the independents.

Cartoon; By Bill Leak.

After a week of waiting for a decision on who is going to form the next government we are still watching Julia fluttering her eyelashes at Bob Katter, and vice versa, while Abbott and Barnaby peruse the internet for pheromones that might do the trick. It’s a bit like the mating dance of death, well for the country at least.

The independents will probably will back the Liberals, as will the WA National who defeated longtime Liberal MP Wilson Tuckey in a three cornered contest and now wants to be seen as independent. (There is no love lost between the WA Libs and Nats.)

One of the reasons for them acting all coy and demure apart from getting their wish list granted is that from now on they are unable to hide behind their irrelevance making self righteous populist platitudes. Now horror of horror, they are relevant for the first time, and may be coming to realize that the eyes of the nation are on them, and their decisions will be remembered.



While Gillard will pay any price for what they are selling Abbott to his credit, is negotiating and not giving in to all demands. Their demand for a commitment to a three-year term is irrational given the instability resulting from a minority government with a hostile Greens controlled Senate. The best thing would be for a party to form a government, see if it can be made to work, and when it fails, go to a new election.



I have a feeling that in the long run, Abbott might be better off to tell them to go, jump and let Gillard form a government which will be forced back to the polls fairly quickly and be smashed in the process.

 Minority governments are inherently unstable in their own right. Trying to hold one together with the aid of a bunch of guys who have never had to take responsibility because they can always blame the other parties will be impossible.

The Senators who were elected this time do not actually take their seats until next July as the Senate is term limited. When this happens the Greens get control with the balance of power which raises the possibility of two elections in the near future. The House of representatives can be put up for election again if it becomes unworkable, but for the Senate to go to the polls requires a double dissolution which needs to be triggered by refusal to pass vital legislation.

This may not be all bad news; if the government is unworkable and cannot get its legislation passed, they can't do anything to us, can they?