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In a recent poll by Survey USA of Oregon voters Obama was leading McCain by 48% to 45% which makes the difference 3% with a margin of error of +/- 4.3%, which is something of a surprise given the fact that Oregon is a very Democrat state.
A post on HillBuzz titled “Nightmare Scenario For Dems: McCain Could Win Oregon” suggests that this could even be worse if McCain was to pick Sarah Palin as a running mate. An extract is included below.
A glance through the archives of the site indicate that HillBuzz is in fact a genuine pro Hillary site though the current tone indicates the degree of bitterness felt by many of her supporters at the treatment she has received at the hands of the DNC.
There are so many terrible things in the latest SurveyUSA Oregon poll for Democrats that we don't really know where to start.
It's very hard to believe McCain is this close to Obama in Oregon, though. If SurveyUSA is not an outlier, then this could spell a McGovern-level loss for Obama against McCain, because Oregon should be a cakewalk for a Democrat. There's just no reason for it to go Republican, and if it starts trending towards McCain, Obama might only win Hawaii (pride-voting for a native born candidate), Illinois (if you win Cook County, you win the state, and Obama is considered a Chicagoan, which Mayor Daley will deliver to him with zero worries), and Washington, DC (African American pride-voting will carry the capital district easily) in the fall.
McCain and Obama are tied in Massachusetts right now, but that's 100% linked to Deval Patrick's performance, and the fact people there heard all of David Axelrod's "Hope/Change" malarkey and know what results it all brings (no hope, no change, just an ineffective governor in over his head). They will hold Patrick's performance against Obama, and will also, we believe, hold John Kerry against Obama as well (if the Republicans run an effective and well-funded candidate, they could very well pick up Kerry's seat, if they worked hard enough: his primary challenge from Ed O'Reilly shows he is more vulnerable than Democrats care to admit).
The one big problem with the SurveyUSA poll is that it fails to poll a McCain/Palin match up, and instead goes with McCain/Fiorina. That's a mistake, because Oregon is a state where Sarah Palin would be a TREMENDOUS asset to McCain.
One recent article on McCain's VP choices claimed Palin, as governor of Alaska, brings nothing to the table, since Alaska is so remote and its electoral votes are a slam-dunk for the GOP. True, Alaska is not part of the contiguous United States, but Oregon is not that far away, in relative terms, or in cultural terms. It's the Pacific Northwest, and Governor Palin should be as known to the people of Washington state and Oregon as Governor Strickland is to people in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee
If used properly, Palin could put Washington state, Oregon, and even California into play. Think about it, a state with two female United States senators would be very receptive to Palin's record of achievement and strong personal skills. From what we've read about her, she's won over her harshest critics by showing up and doing a great job cleaning up the corruption from Alaska's previous nepotism-prone administration.
In our opinion, McCain/Palin takes Oregon, Washington, and Alaska, and makes things incredibly close in California (which McCain will win with an effective outreach to Hispanics and the working class). If that happens, the Democrats really are looking at their worst electoral defeat in a generation.