Newspoll has a problem
Cartoon: By Pickering
Recent movements in
Newspoll don’t seem to make any sense and are not reflect in other polling
during the same timeframe. While
others have been relatively constant since the start of September, Newspoll has
fluctuated wildly, from having the Coalition up 55-45%, then even, then
Coalition up 54-46%, then in the latest, even again.
There are two
indications that the results are wrong, the first being the lack of movement in
other polls. The second is the
lack of movement in the vote for the Greens despite actual results in recent
elections indicating a drop in support for them. They were soundly thrashed in the New South Wales local
authority elections, and then lost three of their four seats in the Australian
Capital Territory election.
After rushing to claim
that Abbott had run out of puff, today political pundits came out in force to
claim in unison that Gillard successfully painting Abbott as a sexist or
misogynist caused the result. This
has to be treated with scepticism owing to the absence of news on the issue as
Labor tried to deal with its budgetary problems, boat arrivals, and an
unaffordable ‘Asian Century’ white paper.
It is also negated by a new Newspoll on ‘Tony Abbott sexist behaviour’, which seems to indicate that it is only an issue
along party lines, essentially Labor plus a bit (probably Greens) thinks he is,
while Coalition thinks he isn’t.
This makes sense, as the Gillard misogyny speech was essentially a histrionic
response to Abbott’s criticism of the government’s defence of Peter Slipper, a
lecherous old coot accused of sexual harassment, whose tweets on female
genetalia made him infamous.
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