A new poll touted as indicating that Labor could
win under Kevin Rudd is only the latest setback for Julia Gillard who is battling
the growing disillusionment in Labor ranks with her inept decision making,
along with the Thompson and Slipper scandals. While the poll only represents three ‘key marginal’
electorates, it is significant that a left wing union is asking the question,
and that it has been ‘leaked’.
… A Rudd return would boost Labor's primary vote by 18 per cent in Blair, 15 per cent in Moreton and 9 per cent in Greenway.
In Deakin, in Ms Gillard's home state of Victoria, Mr Rudd boosts Labor's primary vote by only one point. Under Ms Gillard, Labor is already on track to win the seat, lifting its two-party-preferred lead to 53-47 per cent compared with 52.4-47.6 at the 2010 election.
According to the poll of 450 people in each of the four seats, Mr Rudd is more popular than Ms Gillard with Labor voters, men, women and both sexes over the age of 40.
Mr Rudd's primary vote of 47 per cent among men outpolls Ms Gillard's 34 per cent by 13 points. With women, Mr Rudd's 49 per cent primary vote compares with 40 per cent for Ms Gillard.
Mr Rudd (59 per cent) also polled 17 per cent higher than Ms Gillard (42 per cent) among swinging voters. He held double-digit leads over Ms Gillard in other demographics, including trade-qualified, university-educated, union member, people earning less than $80,000, people identifying themselves as being under financial pressure, and people with children at home. …