Rudd likely to oust Gillard

 A new poll touted as indicating that Labor could win under Kevin Rudd is only the latest setback for Julia Gillard who is battling the growing disillusionment in Labor ranks with her inept decision making, along with the Thompson and Slipper scandals.  While the poll only represents three ‘key marginal’ electorates, it is significant that a left wing union is asking the question, and that it has been ‘leaked’.

Rudd was tossed out of the leadership when unions and labor MPs came to the conclusion that the party had little chance of winning under his continuing leadership.  Any nostalgia for Rudd is likely to be short lived and similar in nature to the George Bush ‘Miss me yet’ posters in the States.  It is telling that out of the whole Labor caucus, Rudd who has been tried and rejected is the only person considered for the job.

Gillard’s leadership has been such a disaster that the ‘drovers dog’ could do better: 

… A Rudd return would boost Labor's primary vote by 18 per cent in Blair, 15 per cent in Moreton and 9 per cent in Greenway. 

In Deakin, in Ms Gillard's home state of Victoria, Mr Rudd boosts Labor's primary vote by only one point. Under Ms Gillard, Labor is already on track to win the seat, lifting its two-party-preferred lead to 53-47 per cent compared with 52.4-47.6 at the 2010 election. 

According to the poll of 450 people in each of the four seats, Mr Rudd is more popular than Ms Gillard with Labor voters, men, women and both sexes over the age of 40. 

Mr Rudd's primary vote of 47 per cent among men outpolls Ms Gillard's 34 per cent by 13 points. With women, Mr Rudd's 49 per cent primary vote compares with 40 per cent for Ms Gillard. 

Mr Rudd (59 per cent) also polled 17 per cent higher than Ms Gillard (42 per cent) among swinging voters. He held double-digit leads over Ms Gillard in other demographics, including trade-qualified, university-educated, union member, people earning less than $80,000, people identifying themselves as being under financial pressure, and people with children at home. …   

It is difficult to assess why those three electorates were chosen, as currently around 60-70% of Labor seats could be described as marginal, and any seat it could lose can be described as ‘key’ as any loss would put them out of government.

One advantage Rudd would have over Gillard is that Conroy, Roxon, Plibersek, Crean, and others would refuse to serve under him, which is a big plus.  Treasurer, Wayne Swan has criticized Rudd but is uncommitted on serving him.  He would most likely serve as having no leadership potential of his own, it is his only option.  Peter Garret has said he wouldn’t serve under Rudd, but it is uncertain whether this is his own decision or Rudd’s.