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Oct 31, 2008

Advice, Prediction and a Warning.

As an Australian, I am looking at the election from outside. Sometimes outside people can see things that are not so apparent from close up. A couple of things today have allowed me to put something together that is worrying.

Pat Conlon at Born Again Redneck has some good advice re the feeling some supporters have that it is pointless voting, in states where Obama is tipped to win. That’s how he can win: -

I had a dentist appointment today and was disturbed to find that he was not going to bother to vote because the polls show that Obama will win. Fortunately I convinced him that was nonsense.

Then I got into my truck to drive home and hear on the Lars Larson radio talk-show that the lowest early voter turn-out in Oregon so far is in the red counties. Lars opined that they had fallen for the same nonsense that Obama is going to win.

That's exactly what the DNC/MSM has been trying to accomplish: to depress us to the point that we don't vote. So, if you know anyone who has succumbed to the propaganda, please tell them that it's not over yet; that we still have a chance and to make sure to vote.

Steve Maloney, one of the most active supporters I have encountered contacted me this morning with a prediction that we will win: -

On Election Eve: The "networks" may "call" PA early for Obama, as they did with Kerry (who just scraped through in 2004), but they should be very cautious. In 2004, the network "calls" came at about 8:30, when Kerry had a 61%-39% lead. By 2:30 a.m. the margin was 51-49.

On this year's Election Night (if Karl Rove and I are right), every minute after about 8:45 p.m., McCain will draw closer in PA. Sometime after midnight, we should know who's won PA, and don't be surprised if it's NOT Barack Obama.

A Warning.

I read some time back, that one of the things that nearly cost us Florida in 2000 was that the media called it early for Gore, with the result that a lot of the Republicans who tend to vote late, went home.

The media this year are excited about the prospect of an Obama victory to the point where I believe they will be just busting to call states for him as soon as possible. This could if we are unable to counter it cost us dearly.

We have to come up with a strategy to prevent it.

1 comment:

  1. The polls all assume a massive Democrat turount and a depressed Republican one. They assume that the youth vote will be a large part of the Democrat turnout. Well, we've been hearing about the youth vote since 1972, and it never has materialized at the polls, and the data from early voting in swing states shows something I have suspected, but the polls and media haven't contemplated: a huge GOP turnout, far larger than I would have expected, since conservatives are more likely to vote on Election Day. I'll be working the polls on Election Day, and I live in a heavily Republican district. If we get a big turnout, that will be a big GOP turnout. If we don't, I'll be nervous.